The market has accurately called nine of the last five recessions. - Paul Samuelson

Economists put decimal points in their forecasts to prove they have a sense of humour. - William Simon, Treasury Secretary in the US Ford Administration.

There is a big difference between trading for a profit, and accurately forecasting changes in trends. There are people who are good at one, but not the other. They are different skills, suited to different people.

The secret to trading is to be at all times an obedient servant of the market. Follow trends as they happen, and react quickly to them so that you are always in tune with the movements. Be sure to quickly close out of loss making trades as soon as you see the trend changing away from where you are presently aiming. Ride trends for as long as possible, and don't put money into a trade unless everything seems to be working in your favour.

Forecasting is different. It isn't about looking at what the market is doing and has done, but understanding WHY it has done what it has done, and seeing if those causes are still in place. Short term market action is very much a psychological phenomenon where traders get greedy or fearful and react without logic, creating dynamic forces which produce violent swings even when the economic forces which are supposed to fuel the market are relatively stable.

Just bear in mind that you don't have to be a successful forecaster to take profits out of the markets, just patient for opportunities and quick when they occur. Those who forecast the markets often are not successful traders, often they run countertrend, and though it is impressive when someone makes a post announcing a major market trend change and two days later it happens just as they said it would, this doesn't necessarily mean the person who wrote that post is the world's greatest trader, that they make packets of money, or that the next forecast they make won't be a total disaster. It is a much riskier approach than simple trend following.