| Risk of ruin with Kelly bets |
|
|
|
| Written by Travis Morien | |
|
You are "ruined" if your account size dips below a size that you consider intolerable, a drawdown that will put you out of the trading business, at least for now.
KellyFor a "Kelly" better, it is fairly simple to calculate your risk of ruin. If A is your account, and xA is the lower limit that you will tolerate (your ruin), but yA is your profit target, then your risk of ruin is: y * (x - 1) If x is 1/2 and y is 2, this means you will quit trading when you are down 50%, but your chances of doubling your money are 2*(1/2 - 1)/(1/2 - 2) = 67% Your chances of tripling your money before losing 2/3 of it are 3*(2/3 - 1)/(2/3 - 3) = 3/7 (43%) Fractional KellyIf you are betting a fraction of a Kelly bet, say 1/2, the formula for risk of ruin is a little more complex.
Probability that your balance reaches yA before it reaches xA.With a half-Kelly bet (f=.5), you have an 88% chance of doubling your money before you lose half of it.
|
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|